The Ames Straw Poll is this weekend and, while Rick Perry has decided to kick off his campaign by upending the event and thus grandly pissing off the voters he’ll be wooing, the show must go on! Here’s how it’ll go down, according to Knepstrodamus:
Michele Bachmann – 31%
Ron Paul – 22%
Tim Pawlenty – 14%
Herman Cain – 12%
Rick Santorum – 10%
Thaddeus McCotter – 1%
Rick Perry – 4%
Mitt Romney – 4%
Newt Gingrich – 1%
Jon Huntsman, World’s Worst Candidate – < 1%
Other – < 1%
Ron Paul’s support is overrated, as usual — pundits fail to recognize that this straw poll is not taking place on the Internet — but he has more supporters this time and most of them will take the time to come out. Bachmann’s are equally fired up, though, and she has quadruple the raw support of our favorite North American Union conspiracy theorist. Don’t believe the hype: Paul simply has no chance of overtaking her.
Tim Pawlenty gets one last opportunity to experience being overhyped by the media. Despite idiotic news stories touting him as a possible winner, he will finish closer to 4th than to 2nd. Really — what is it with this guy? Despite the fact that he never rose above 4-5% in the polls (and now routinely fights with Santorum for seventh place nationally), the media always loved to treat him as a frontrunner; a “respectable alternative” to Mitt Romney. You’d think that after months of failure-to-launch episodes, the media would have figured out that the man is simply not connecting with voters. And yet we’re forced to suffer through one last Pawlenty-is-a-frontrunner lie.
Write-ins always flop: the highest total a non-participant has ever received is Fred Thompson, who rounded up a massive 1.2% in 2007. Romney will outdo Thompson, I think — not only is Romney’s campaign more mature, but Romney simply has more support in Iowa today than Thompson did at the same point. Perry, whose people are apparently organizing a small write-in effort, will also best Thompson’s ‘record,’ Gingrich is lucky to get 1. Santorum flops in fifth. The World’s Worst Candidate fails to break single-digits. McCotter fails to gain the traction he needs to parlay his run into a Fox show.